Webinar agenda
Team-based care for the management of chronic diseases: from evidence to implementation
November 28, 2024 / 16:00-17:00 CET
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenters: Dr Viktoria Gastens, PharmD PhD, Population Health Laboratory (#PopHealthLab), University of Fribourg, Switzerland, and Professor Valérie Santschi, PharmD PhD, La Source, School of Nursing Sciences, HES-SO University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland
Bio: Dr Viktoria Gastens is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Population Health Laboratory (#PopHealthLab) at the University of Fribourg and a practicing Community Pharmacist. Prof. Valérie Santschi, pharmacist, PhD, is Full Professor of Health Services and Head of the LAB-Teaching and Research Healthcare Systems, Ethics, Interprofessional Practice (SEI LAB) at the School of Nursing Sciences La Source, HES-SO University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland in Lausanne. Dr Gastens and Prof. Santschi are collaborating on health services research including systematic reviews with meta-analyses.
Summary: Due to ageing populations, busy clinical workloads and, shortage of physicians in most healthcare systems, innovative models of care with a focus on team-based care (TBC), involving pharmacists or nurses could be a promising approach in improving the management of chronic diseases. In this webinar, we will discuss some results from our research using a recent evidence of TBC and pharmacist care in hypertension management.
Click here to register.
Professional development in Health Promotion: A look at health promotion study programmes in Europe
December 13, 2024 / 13:30-14:30 CET
Organised by: EUPHA-HP
The webinar is organised by Karina Leksy (Poland), Kevin Dadaczynski (Germany), and Monica O'Mullane (Ireland) members of the HP Section Steering Committee who will have different speakers sharing their experience. A nice opportunity to get a sense of current trends in Europe. Stay tuned for the detailed programme.
Click here to register.
Past webinars
EUPHA members can watch the recordings of webinars in the EUPHA Resources Module. The module can be accessed through the link in your personal account!
Developing a Practical Framework to Support the Timely and Effective Design and Implementation of Complex and Technology-Supported Interventions (the GERONTE Intervention)
October 31, 2024 / 16:00-17:00 CET
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenter: Bridget O'Sullivan, MSc. Nursing, PG Health Protection, PG Dip. Perioperative Nursing, PG. Cert. Cardiovascular Health, BSc. Nursing, Diploma Nursing
The need to accelerate prevention and control of chronic diseases in Central Asia
September 26, 2024 / 16:00-17:00 CEST
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenter: Antonio Sarría-Santamera, MBBS PhD, Medicine & Global Health, Nazarbayev University School of Medicine, Kazakhstan
Central Asia is an immense territory although relatively sparsely populated, with an increasing tendency for urbanization. Despite being relatively young populations, Central Asian countries suffer a tremendous burden due to NCDs significantly higher compared to European levels. Premature mortality is a significant factor, with the highest rates observed in men. Cardiovascular disease ranks as the primary cause of death, followed by oncological and digestive system disorders. Several factors contribute to this high rate of premature mortality, including excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, and an unhealthy diet. Poor control of glucose levels, blood pressure, or dyslipidemia further contributes to premature mortality from conditions like ischemic heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive heart disease. Public health authorities are making efforts to improve control of NC, but still health promotion or appropriate detection and treatment are suboptimal, at best, and usually are lacking. The webinar will discuss the problems with NCD in Central Asian countries.
The state of Health Promotion Practice and Research in Europe
June 25, 2024 / 11:30-12:30 CEST
Organised by: EUPHA-HP
Health promotion is a very broad field that is not always well understood within the wider EUPHA community. The webinar is organised by section steering committee member Elisabeth Noehammer from the Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment in Austria. The webinar will highlight the state of health promotion practice in Europe. The presentations will cover the strengths and weaknesses of 4 countries and the challenges they face and leave room for discussions. This collection of perspectives will be of high interest not only for those experienced in health promotion, but also for new colleagues who may still be wondering what they signed for.
Speakers:
- Petra Plunger and Anna-Kristina Wahl on Austria
- Eric Breton on France
- Niko Kohls on Germany
- Heike Wieser on Italy
- Karina Leksy on Poland
Global healthcare labour markets and mobile workforces
June 17, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-HWR
Chairs: Ellen Kuhlmann, IWAK, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany and Marius Ungureanu, Department of Public Health Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Key questions:
- What are the major challenges to the governance of global health labour markets and mobile healthcare workers?
- How to develop more equitable and effective healthcare workforce migration policy and how to improve its implementation?
This is webinar 4 of a series of 4 themed The workforce crisis in healthcare: moving the debate to bridge evidence and policy. This webinar series aims to advance the healthcare workforce debate by directing its attention to the implementation of policy recommendations and identifying weaknesses, highlighting a wide range of healthcare workforce policies and interventions across various countries. It results of a combined effort by the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, the WHO Collaboration Center for Healthcare Workforce Policies and Planning / NOVA-Institute of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (to be confirmed), and the EUPHA section Health Workforce Research. The series is organised by Ellen Kuhlmann, Gabriela Lotta and Tiago Correia and draws on a special issue of the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 2024, 39(3), that will be published in May.
Re-visioning the governance and organisation of healthcare work: skill-mix, leadership, and new professional groups
June 11, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-HWR
Chairs: Tiago Correia, WHO Collaborating Center for Health Workforce Policy and Planning. Lisbon, Portugal and co-chair
Key questions:
- How to improve the organisation and management and the composition of the healthcare workforce?
- What policy responses are needed to achieve this vision of a more effective and resilient future healthcare workforce and how to improve the implementation?
This is webinar 3 of a series of 4 themed The workforce crisis in healthcare: moving the debate to bridge evidence and policy. This webinar series aims to advance the healthcare workforce debate by directing its attention to the implementation of policy recommendations and identifying weaknesses, highlighting a wide range of healthcare workforce policies and interventions across various countries. It results of a combined effort by the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, the WHO Collaboration Center for Healthcare Workforce Policies and Planning / NOVA-Institute of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (to be confirmed), and the EUPHA section Health Workforce Research. The series is organised by Ellen Kuhlmann, Gabriela Lotta and Tiago Correia and draws on a special issue of the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 2024, 39(3), that will be published in May.
The ‘permacrises’ and its exacerbating effects of the healthcare workforce crisiss
June 7, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-HWR
Chairs: Tiago Correia, WHO Collaborating Center for Health Workforce Policy and Planning, Lisbon, Portugal and Gabriela Lotta, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Key questions:
- What are the major challenges to the healthcare workforce?
- What policies are needed to respond effectively to the problems and how to improve implementation?
This is webinar 2 of a series of 4 themed The workforce crisis in healthcare: moving the debate to bridge evidence and policy. This webinar series aims to advance the healthcare workforce debate by directing its attention to the implementation of policy recommendations and identifying weaknesses, highlighting a wide range of healthcare workforce policies and interventions across various countries. It results of a combined effort by the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, the WHO Collaboration Center for Healthcare Workforce Policies and Planning / NOVA-Institute of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (to be confirmed), and the EUPHA section Health Workforce Research. The series is organised by Ellen Kuhlmann, Gabriela Lotta and Tiago Correia and draws on a special issue of the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 2024, 39(3), that will be published in May.
Burden of Chronic Diseases from a small country perspective
May 30, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenter: Dr. Sarah Cuschieri MD, PhD, University of Malta, Adjunct research professor Epidemiology and Biostatistics Department, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
Small countries play an important role in providing an understanding of the burden of chronic diseases through population-based studies. This webinar will discuss non-communicable diseases (NCDs) burden, risk factors, geographical health inequalities, the impact of COVID-19 on NCDs, development of Long COVID and lessons learnt from small countries perspectives and its significance to neighbouring larger countries.
How to respond more effectively to the healthcare workforce crisis: international evidence and national exampless
May 29, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-HWR
Presenters: Julia Zimmermann, Marina Karanikolos (European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies)
Chairs: Ellen Kuhlmann, IWAK, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany and Tiago Correia, WHO Collaborating Center for Health Workforce Policy and Planning, Lisbon, Portugal
Key questions to be discussed with the panellists and participants:
- What are the most effective policy responses to the healthcare workforce crisis, related to your research topic?
- How to improve evidence-based healthcare workforce policy and its implementation?
This is webinar 1 of a series of 4 themed The workforce crisis in healthcare: moving the debate to bridge evidence and policy. This webinar series aims to advance the healthcare workforce debate by directing its attention to the implementation of policy recommendations and identifying weaknesses, highlighting a wide range of healthcare workforce policies and interventions across various countries. It results of a combined effort by the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, the WHO Collaboration Center for Healthcare Workforce Policies and Planning / NOVA-Institute of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (to be confirmed), and the EUPHA section Health Workforce Research. The series is organised by Ellen Kuhlmann, Gabriela Lotta and Tiago Correia and draws on a special issue of the International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 2024, 39(3), that will be published in May.
Health systems Resilience testing: using shock scenarios to develop actionable policies
May 17, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-FOR
Presenters: Julia Zimmermann, Marina Karanikolos (European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies)
Recent adverse events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather, war, and economic crises have demonstrated that many health systems are not sufficiently resilient. The resilience testing methodology is a mixed methods approach that uses a hypothetical shock scenario to help health systems understand their strengths and weaknesses. This helps health systems develop responses to improve their resilience. This webinar is a deep dive on the resilience testing methodology. We will convey core concepts of this new approach and discuss practicable insights from its implementation.
Surveillance bias of Cancer
April 25, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenters: Dr Stefano Tancredi, MD, and Prof Arnaud Chiolero, MD PhD, Population Health Laboratory, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
Translating information from cancer surveillance indicators into practical actions is often challenging. One problem is surveillance bias, a bias that occurs when differences in surveillance indicators result from variations in screening and diagnosis practices rather than genuine differences in the risk of cancer or related outcomes. This bias is linked to the problem of overdiagnosis. In this webinar, we will illustrate the issue of surveillance bias of cancer using multiple examples and suggest potential approaches to address it.
Presenters’ Information: Dr. Stefano Tancredi, MD, and Prof. Arnaud Chiolero, MD, PhD, conduct epidemiological research on chronic diseases at the #PopHealthLab of the University of Fribourg, Switzerland. Stefano Tancredi is a PhD student at the #PopHealthLab. Prof. Chiolero is Full Professor of Public Health at the University of Fribourg, Adjunct Professor at the University of Berne, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Global and Population Health of McGill University.
How are tobacco companies circumventing tobacco control legislation in Israel?
March 28, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenter: Dr. Yael Bar-Zeev, MD, MPH, PhD Hebrew University of Jerusalem
In the 2019-2020 period, Israel introduced comprehensive tobacco control measures, such as prohibiting advertisements (except in print media), mandating plain packaging with prominent health warnings, and banning point-of-sale displays. Notably, Israel extended these regulations to encompass all tobacco and nicotine products, pioneering plain packaging for electronic cigarettes. This presentation will outline findings from various studies, including audits of point-of-sales and analysis of print media advertisements, highlighting the diverse strategies employed by tobacco companies to circumvent the legislation and continue promoting their products
Fourth in-between seminar of the EUPHA Social security, work and health section
March 19, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-SSWH
At this digital seminar we will aim to showcase the range of research going on within the research field by letting a number of young researchers present their projects. We will also allow plenty of time for questions and discussions.
Click on the link here
Meeting ID: 941 4980 2836
Access code: 784012
René de Vries, PhD student, University Medical Center Groningen, The Netherlands
The long arm of adversity. An epidemiological study on childhood adversity, adolescent psychopathology and labour market outcomes in young adulthood’
Ida Karlsson, PhD student, Karolinska Institute, Sweden
Evaluation of a problem-solving intervention with workplace involvement in primary health care, for employees on sickness absence due to common mental disorders – a cluster randomized controlled trial.
Marije Hagendijk, PhD student, Amsterdam University Medical Center, The Netherlands
Value@WORK: value-based healthcare in work-focused healthcare
Anna-Maria Hultén, Postdoc, Gothenburg University, Sweden
Early identification of primary health care patients at risk of sick leave due to work-related stress. A situated understanding.
ECDC scenario's for 2040
March 1, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-FOR
Presenter: Gerjon Ikink, Principal Expert Public Health Foresight and Determinants, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
Six future scenarios were developed as a foundational element of the ECDC Foresight Programme. The scenarios feature the possible threat landscapes for ECDC’s mission and operations in 2040. We have since revised and refined the scenarios and then done a ‘backcasting’ from these scenarios from 2040 to the present, as well as desk research, to identify steps and actions to be taken so that ECDC would still be effective in each of these scenarios. Based on this, a list of possible policy and strategy options have been identified for ECDC to prepare for and respond to the emerging situations under each scenario.
A national and sub-national analysis of diabetes mellitus prevalence and health inequalities in Europe
February 29, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenters:
- Orsolya Varga, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen; Syreon Research Institute, Budapest
- Nour Mahrouseh, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen
- Carlos Alexandre Soares Andrade, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen
More information here
Right to health, public health and climate change
February 20, 2024
Organised by: UK Faculty of Public Health, United Nations Human Rights, Global Network for Academic Public Health, ASPHER, EUPHA-LAW
Climate change is a public health emergency. It is the single biggest threat to global health, peace, and security, a crisis multiplier, and a significant driver of health inequalities. Human right-based approaches are essential for good public health policies and practice, including action to address climate change.
This webinar is the first in a series offered by the Faculty of Public Health (UK), UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Geneva, Global Network for Academic Public Health (GNAPH), Groningen Centre for Health Law, EUPHA and other partners to build understanding, competence and capacity on human rights-based approaches for good public health policy and practice.
The session will include presentation by Alicia El Yamin, distinguished scholar, author and advocate from Harvard University, with Maja Groff, international lawyer based in the Hague and Convenor, Climate Governance Commission , Marlies Hesselman, from the University of Groningen Centre for Law, and Benjamin Schachter, Human rights Officer at OCHR, as discussants and Panelists.
Future proofiing the EU AMR Action plan – Applying futures methods to complex public health challenges
January 26, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-FOR
Presented by: Sarah Parkinson, RAND Europe
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious public health concern and has been deemed a top priority amongst public health authorities internationally. In 2017, the European Commission published the European One Health Action Plan against AMR, which set out objectives and priory areas for actions across EU/EEA Member States. In this webinar, we will present a future-proofing study of the Action Plan. This study included developing a series of scenarios for how AMR might develop over the next ten years, in order to gather stakeholder perspectives on how the Plan can be improved to mitigate against future risks, take advantage of future opportunities and move towards more favourable futures. This webinar will focus on both how future methodologies can be applied to think through complex public health challenges, and on the results of the study.
Epidemiology and Prevention of Chronic Disease: Global Public Health Perspectives
January 25, 2024
Organised by: EUPHA-CHR
Presenter: Prof. Saverio Stranges, MD, PhD, FAHA
This webinar will provide a global overview on the epidemiology and prevention of chronic disease, with focus on cardio-metabolic conditions and multimorbidity, as well as on the role of lifestyles and social determinants of health. It will focus on examples of Dr Stranges’s own research in this field. Specific topics will be: (1) the role of traditional and emerging risk factors; (2) the importance of socio-environmental determinants of health and their impact on chronic disease in both high-income countries and low-resource settings; (3) the need for enhanced partnership between primary care & public health; (4) current & future public health challenges and opportunities in chronic disease prevention and management.
Click for the slides part 1 and part 2.
EUPHA Global health initiative/section AMR Webinar series
January 24, 2024 - 14:00-15:00 CET
Organised by: EUPHA-GH
Presenter: Liz Taylor, WHO
The EUPHA Global Health section-initiative is pleased to announce the first of what will be a series of webinars about Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in 2024.
Dr Liz Tayler from the World Health Organization (WHO) will be our guest presenter for the first webinar. Dr Tayler will discuss the important topic of AMR, a global health issue that affects the effectiveness of antibiotics and other antimicrobial drugs. Dr Tayler will share valuable insights and updates on the current state of AMR and its impact on global health. Don't miss this opportunity to learn from an expert in the field and engage in a thought-provoking discussion.
Dr Tayler works for WHO supporting Egypt and countries in the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) to scale up action on Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) and AMR. Liz previously worked on AMR in WHO Geneva for seven years, where she led the team supporting National Action plans, the establishment of the AMR Multi-Partner Trust Fund and the Quadripartite Strategic Framework for AMR, and developed the Tripartite AMR country self-assessment survey (TrACCS), and AMR monitoring framework.
Webinar on Global Health
December 12, 2023
Organised by: EPH Lisbon host
Moderator:
Sonia Dias, chair of the International Scientific Committee Lisbon 2024
Speakers:
Ilona Kickbusch, Founder and Chair of the Global Health Centre at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland
Magda Robalo, former Minister of Health Guinea Bissau, Institute for Global Health and Development (IGHD), Guinea Bissau
Elena Petelos, Senior Research Fellow in Public Health, University of Crete, Greece, and Maastricht University, Netherlands, President EUPHA Global health section
Here is the video of the first session.
They shared profound insights drawn from their extensive expertise in public health, epidemiology, and healthcare management. Join us in shaping impactful conversations around global health challenges and solutions, exploring innovative approaches for a healthier, more equitable world. Don't miss this opportunity to contribute to meaningful change!
Beyond the Present: Utilising the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act to address health inequalities in Wales
November 24, 2023
Organised by: EUPHA-FOR
Sara Elias from the Future Generations Commissioner of Wales presented the webinar.
WHO Global Health Foresight: looking forward to best harness the power of science and research
September 22, 2023
Organised by: EUPHA-FOR
Presented by Marion Laumonier and Anna Laura Ross, from the World Health Organization.
This webinar will focus on the monitoring of scientific advances with a global health perspective.
The Ghosts of Christmas - Stories on Foresight
June 16, 2023
Organised by: EUPHA-FOR
Presented by Dr Artur Furtado, Head of the Disease Prevention and Health Promotion unit of the European Commission.
Evidence-Based Public Health: The Contentious Interface Between Evidence and Public Health
May 8, 2023
Organised by: EUPHA-EPI, Stanford University, METRICS, Universita Cattolica sel Sacro Cuore
Webinar powered by: EUPHA
The EUPHA Public health epidemiology secion (EUPHA-EPI) is pleased to invite you to this webinar on evidence-based public health with Professor John Ioannidis, from Stanford University.
This webinar is aimed at exposing the European public health epidemiology community to the crucial role of evidence to guide public health for both chronic problems and acute crisis circumstances. Dr. Ioannidis will address the significance of valid data generation, collection, and interpretation, with examples from both chronic diseases and challenges encountered during the COVID-19 pandemic. The discussion will emphasize the vital function of public health epidemiologists in generating and using reliable, transparent, reproducible evidence, shaping policy decisions.
More information here.
30 years of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study– Lessons Learnt
April 14, 2023
Organised by: Dr Henk Hilderink, EUPHA Foresight section president
This Webinar will present experiences and lessons learnt of foresight studies implemented in the Netherlands over the last 30 years.
Modelling healthcare expenditure by disease in OECD countries
March 30, 2023
Organised by: OECD and EUPHA-ECO
During the virtual seminar, we will discuss two recent works on attributing healthcare expenditures to diseases. A specific focus of the discussion will be on the methodological challenges and the policy implications of such cost-of-illness analyses for OECD countries. The University of Melbourne will present a country-level model that has been used in a simulation study achieving SDG 3.4. The OECD Secretariat will outline an AI-based model relying on patient-level data that is used in the OECD microsimulation model for Strategic Public Health Planning for non-communicable diseases (SPHeP-NCD) to assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention interventions. The Secretariats will also discuss the benefits of this project to policymakers and information on how countries can get involved.
Attendees will have the opportunity to discuss both methodologies and real-world applications and exchange views with academics part of the EUPHA.
More information here.
International Women’s Day - Health policy and global health crises: why we need feminist intersectional approaches and what to learn from COVID-19?
March 7, 2023
Organised by: EUPHA-HWR, EUPHA-PHPP, EUPHA-SGMH, EUPHA-MIG, EUPHA Working Group on SDG5, EUPHAnxt
Webinar powered by: EUPHA
We invite you to join us in celebrating (the evening before) 8 March International Women’s Day and critically reflect on the lessons to be learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. An international group of speakers seeks to highlight policy gaps and discuss how gender inequalities exacerbated in the shadow of a major global health crisis and how they intersect with other inequalities and new migration flows. Why did health policy failed so badly to protect women, minorities, and vulnerable groups, and what role did public health play? The webinar seeks to explore ways to create a ‘new normal’ that is better equipped to protects human rights, equality and equality, and the crucial role of feminist networks and research.
Find more information here.
Virtual round table on women's rights and human rights
March 8, 2023
Organised by: EUPHAnxt, EUPHA working group on SDG5 and others
Find more information here.
Stepping up the Prevention of Violence Against Healthcare Workers
March 13, 2023
Organised by: EHMA and EUPHA-HWR
This webinar is a call for unity and mobilisation, and to explore opportunities to better address the presence of increasing violence against healthcare workers.
- To create a sense of urgency.
- To explore the policy problem.
- To connect different perspectives.
- To identify opportunities for action.
This webinar responds to a ‘call for action’ published this month in the European Journal of Public Health; Violence against healthcare workers is a political problem and a public health issue; doi:
10.1093/eurpub/ckac180
Find more information here.
Migrant healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: why we should worry about health systems and governance
March 14, 2023
Organised by: GLOHRA Project PROTECT, in collaboration with EUPHA Health Workforce Research (EUPHA-HWR) and Public Health, Babeș-Bolyai University, Romania
Chairs: Ellen Kuhlmann and Marius Ungureanu
Hosts: Marius Ungureanu and Monica Brînzac, Babeș-Bolyai University, Romania
Webinar powered by: EUPHA
Migrant healthcare workers played a crucial role in maintaining healthcare delivery and resilience of the health system during the COVID-19, but were largely absent from pandemic policy, and the literature highlights inequalities and structural racism. This webinar calls for greater attention to migrant HCWs. However, simply adding the migration status is not enough.
We introduce an intersectional health system-based approach. Results from the German PROTECT project will be contrasted with the situation in the United Kingdom and Brazil, where evidence of disadvantages of migrant healthcare workers seem to be strongest. Key stakeholders in the field will comment and add evidence from a health system, management, profession and policy perspective, thus stimulating critical debate and policy solutions.
Find more information here.
How can policymakers incorporate uncertainty (as modelled through foresight) into policy evaluation
February 24, 2023
Organised by: EUPHA Foresight section
Webinar powered by: EUPHA
This webinar will be hosted by Dr. Ana Vieria, Assistant Professor of the Centro de Estudos de Gestão do Instituto Superior Técnico, in Portugal. The webinar will present a socio-technical framework to measure the desirability of public policies and their doability applied in Lisbon’s urban health policymaking setting and discuss insights regarding the role of scenario analysis in the appraisal and selection of policies.
